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Economy Aug 22, 2013

Bears are out: No value in rupee below 70, says Credit Agricole

MUMBAI: Credit Agricole said it does not see value in the rupee below 70 to a dollar unless foreign capital returns and that it would not recommend buying the currency for fundamental reasons below 75 to the dollar.



"The only long-term solution - deep economic, political and social reforms - is unlikely ahead of the upcoming elections and possibly for years to come," Credit Agricole said in a note dated Aug. 21, adding to the chorus of bearish bets on the rupee.

India is due to hold national elections by May.

"Even if such reforms are announced this year, this may not help much given that a new government may be in power next year and its commitment to reforms is unknown," it said.

The rupee slumped to a record low of 65.56 on Thursday and is headed for a sixth straight session of decline.

"The hope is that markets will learn to live with the idea of the Fed's tapering of asset purchases, and that the pressure on currencies of countries with current account shortfalls will be reversed. This would allow INR to recover," it said.


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